Deni Avdija beats Auburn and then goes through the Doppelgänger Machine

Deni Avdija beats Auburn and then goes through the Doppelgänger Machine

Washington Wizards v Charlotte Hornets
Wizards forward Deni Avdija grabs a rebound. | Photo by Brock Williams-Smith/NBAE via Getty Images

Deni Avdija’s experienced the news the past few days right after he played for the Israeli national team against Auburn. His performance was {explained|referred to|defined} around the internets as amazing and dominating — somebody for some reason thought his {perform was|enjoy was} akin to Lebron.

I did not see the game, and I haven’t been able to find a full {package|container} score, but I did {a few|several} rudimentary analysis on statistics posted on Twitter simply by Neil Dalal of Hoops District.

The box rating gaps are potentially substantial — minutes played, unpleasant and defensive rebounds, {and also|along with|in addition to} steals and blocks.

For the bejesus of it, I ran {figures|amounts|quantities} on what Dalal published. The particular stat line calculates to some score around 140, {within my|inside my} PPA metric, assuming twenty five minutes played. (PPA {will be|is usually|is definitely|can be|is certainly} my overall production metric. In PPA, average {will be|is usually|is definitely|can be|is certainly} 100 and higher is much better. )

The Twitterverse said Avdija had a couple steals {along with a|and also a|plus a|as well as a} couple blocks, so I {went|leaped|happened to run} the numbers a second period using the rumored stats, and am guessed that he had {1|a single|one particular} offensive rebound based on their performance in the NBA (approximately 1 offensive rebound for each 8 defensive boards). Their PPA with guesstimates (again assuming 25 minutes): regarding 170.

Not bad, though ihe did not shoot well (just 6-14 from the floor and 2-6 from three), he had six turnovers to his six assists, and he fouled {away|out there}. On the plus side, {this individual|he or she} drew 11 fouls plus hit 11-13 from the {totally free|free of charge} throw line.

His overall unpleasant efficiency was around 105-to-106, which would be subpar within the NBA, but might be alright given the level of talent in the team.

If anyone has the actual {package|container} score, I’d be pleased to update the numbers.


All of the previous is bonus content, {due to the fact|since|mainly because} I really sat down to {talk about|come up with} Avdijand results from {the|our} Statistical Doppelgänger Machine. {We|I actually} {formerly|earlier} wrote about Avdija’s 2021-22 season plus prescribed areas for your pet to improve.

For those unfamiliar, my Record Doppelgänger Machine works by evaluating a player’s performance throughout 14 different categories including age, playing time, pace-neutral box score stats plus scores from my PPA metric. All that’s folded up into a single score that will (in theory) provides a listing of NBA players since 1977-78 with similar production in a similar age.

In Avdija’s situation, 9 of the top 10 are usually 21 or 22 years of age — last season {has been|had been} his age 21 season. {Almost all|Just about all|Most|All of|Many} 10 players were ahead, and all rated as highly similar.

The comps:

  1. Justise Winslow , Miami Heat , 2017-18, age: 21 — The Heat apparently wanted therefore badly to draft Winslow they reportedly turned down the trade package from Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics that consisted of 6 draft picks, including 4 first rounders. It seems uncommon for both Ainge and Pat Riley to be that will wrong. Winslow has been injury-plagued and unimpressive when healthful. He’s played seven {months|periods}, and his next above average {time of year|period} will be his first.
  2. DerMarr Johnson , Atlanta Hawks , 2001-02, age: 21 — The narrative my {mind|human brain} recorded on Johnson is that he was emerging {like a|being a|as being a} good-to-very-good player until {a significant|a critical} car wreck nearly {wiped out|murdered|slain} him and derailed their career. This was his final season before the accident — PPA: 70. He skipped all of the following season plus got back on the floor for a brief stint with the New York Knicks in 2003-04. After that… he went to the Denver Nuggets and had {both|the 2} best seasons of their career — a 103 PPA in 1232 {moments|mins|a few minutes} over 71 games at 24, and a 73 PPA in 924 minutes more than 58 games at twenty five. He was finished {in|from|with|on} 27.
  3. Caris LeVert , Brooklyn Nets , 2016-17, age group: 22 — This compensation struck me as strange because LeVert is best reputed for his inefficient scoring plus lackluster defense, while Avdija is so-so on criminal offense and solid defensively. Yet this was rookie LeVert whenever his usage rate {has been|had been} just 15. 4%.
  4. Vladimir Radmanovic , Seattle Supersonics, 2001-02, age: 21 — Picked 12th overall within the 2001 draft, Radmanovic {handled|maintained} two average or much better seasons: a 109 PPA at age 23 and {an one hundred|a hundred|a hundred} PPA at 27. {This individual|He or she} stuck around for twelve seasons and 7 various teams, primarily on his capability to shoot.
  5. Omri Casspi , Sacramento Kings , 2010-11, age group: 22 — The 23rd pick in the 2009 {write|set up}, Casspi stuck around {with regard to|regarding|intended for|to get|pertaining to} 10 below average seasons along with 7 different teams. Casspi was the first Israeli chosen in the first round from the NBA draft .
  6. Ryan Kelly , Los Angeles Lakers , age group: 22 — This was Kelly’s rookie season, which was furthermore his best (PPA: 79). He followed it up along with three replacement level {months|periods} and exited the little league.
  7. Dorell Wright , {Ohio|Arkansas} Heat, 2006-07, age: twenty one — The Heat picked Wright 19th overall in 06 and kept him {close to|about} for five seasons. Their final season in {Ohio was|Arkansas was} his best {using the|with all the} team: 97 PPA within 72 games. Then, {this individual|he or she} reeled off three consecutive average or better {months|periods} — 118 PPA {in|from|with|on} 25, 138 at twenty six and 113 at twenty-seven.
  8. Kenny Thomas , Houston Rockets , 1999-00, age: twenty two — This is the comp that will feels most like Avdija {in my experience|in my opinion} — not in style, Jones was an undersized PF who at 6-7 {may be|could be} a smallball center within today’s game — however in attitude and competitiveness. Jones had a few about-average {months|periods} and topped out {having a|using a} 128 PPA, which {this individual|he or she} did at ages twenty six and 28.
  9. Stanley Manley , Detroit Pistons , 2017-18, age: 21 — Chosen 8th overall, Johnson {offers|provides} mostly disappointed in the NBA. He briefly was {most respected|respected} to be a stout defender, {although|even though} that seems to have dissipated. Final season was his greatest, and he managed just a 71 PPA.
  10. Devean George , Los Angeles Lakers, 2001-02, age group: 24 — Drafted 23rd overall in the 1999 {write|set up} by Jerry West, George’s reputation sped past their production, as often is the situation with bit players upon good teams. According to PPA, he never had an endowed season in his 11-year profession. His best was a good 84 at age 26.

General, a pretty underwhelming list. {Jointly|Along}, they have maybe 8-10 typical or better seasons, plus none rose to the {degree of|amount of} All-Star. A few bigger {titles|brands} rate as somewhat comparable (though further down the list). Names like: Harrison Barnes at 20, Pascal Siakam at 23, and Hedo Turkoglu at 22. However, there are also guys like Yi Jianlian at 21, Marquese Criss at 20, plus Keith Bogans at twenty three.

{Who is|That has} next through the Doppelgänger Device? Vote below.

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